Police outwitted, say police

Organised crime gangs are "outwitting police," said Sir Paul Stephenson at the annual John Harris Memorial Lecture last night. Apparently no more than 11 per cent of around 6,000 crime gangs are targeted by police each year - that's 11 per cent of an estimated 38,000 villains. Stephenson said: "[Some criminals] have learnt that if they become sufficiently organised and sophisticated - and by definition they often are - then our reach is no greater than our ambition, and our ambition has been less than it should have been."

This isn't new from top coppers - it's not the first time that it's been flagged up that the UK response to organised crime might be less coherent than one might like - in particular that there are few opportunities for police to co-ordinate their efforts nationally.

Sir Paul's cunning plan is to reject suggestions of centralising efforts even further. Instead, he says, we should take a leaf out of the big book of counter terrorism, and have a national co-ordinator overseeing a series of regional hubs. But elected officials in charge of police oversight will be a hindrance not a help, as it's not a sexy issue and nobody wins votes by scooping up organised crime gangs. "Serious organised crime affects everyone in this country. It's a surcharge on everything we buy," he says.

What do we say? Should we be fighting OC like we fight terrorism - the same commitment, the same sophistication? Will there be any political backing for such a move - either at the higher echelons of government or within the police itself? And would elected police overseers be a waste of public money?

Plenty in there to chew on. I'm willing to bet Smokey'll have an opinion or twelve...

Edited to add: Sir Paul adds: "It is important that I stress that I am talking about the gap that exists outwith the effective operational remit of the Serious and Organised Crime Agency (SOCA) - a gap located within policing and police forces." Should SOCA get bigger then?

Spanish omelette

This post title is inspired by just having eaten one that's been living in the fridge for an unknown number of days and wondering if it's going to kill me. Segueing to a poor analogy between said omelette and the current Spanish situation, involving exact number of particular ingredients that makes this a Spanish omelette and not a frittata or a mess of eggs and spuds.

What's special about Spain right now? Well, a 40 per cent unemployment rate for 16-24 year olds for a start. Think about that figure for a second. Contemplate what it would mean if you applied it to Ireland, for example, or Greece, or France or the US. Emigration? Riots? The fall of the government?

Yet in Spain, there is no unrest. No emigration, no big movement of young people getting on their bikes and heading off to find work. So what's Spain's secret? And more importantly, can they keep it up until economic growth returns?

Firstly, the overall unemployment rate is 20 per cent. While that's extraordinarily high, what it tells you is that it's the young that are getting shafted here. Spain has a two-tier labour market, and it's a generational gap. Most of the jobs that have been lost since the crisis began have been poorly paid, temporary contracts, with little training and - obviously - little job security. The other group suffering disproportionately are immigrants, for the same reasons. It is extremely difficult and expensive to fire employees on full time contracts. Recent labour reforms make it easier, but not as much as many employers might like.

Secondly, unemployment benefits are generous. They're around 65 per cent of the average wage and are paid out for two years, and after that there is another 180 days' worth of benefits if your income has dropped below a certain level.

Thirdly, Spain has a very strong familial tradition. These jobless kids aren't leaving home to look for work. They're staying with mum and dad and possibly grandma and grandpa and spending their days drinking coffees with their schoolfriends who are also out of work. Those 180 days of benefits I mentioned are measured according to household income - so living with the extended family may make financial sense too, especially if parents are also out of work.

What happens when the benefits start to run out, though? And public sector workers have to support more and more family members on shrinking salaries? Austerity measures and labour reforms haven't really begun to hit home yet. What happens when they do?

Elsewhere in Europe, this sort of thing leads to riots, domestic terrorism (yes it does, look at Greece), mass emigration, recruitment to organised crime, increased racism and xenophobia. Is Spain really immune? Answers on a straw donkey please.

Ten Little Russians

Well, eleven really, but one got away in Cyprus and then there were ten.
Ten little Russians, living rather fine.
One got above herself and then there were nine.
Nine little Russians, living in the States.
One was a Peruvian, so then there were eight.

I could continue, but I'll spare you all. What were the security implications of all this? Were these people pawns in a game betweeen the security services of the US and Russia, or was something more sinister going on? Where elements in the FBI trying to embarass Obama and prevent an apparent developing rapprochment with Medvedev [and behing him Putin?].

The Bandit hates conspiracy theories and probably will go for the " Anna Chapman had been told to make a run for it" explanation. But even then, they werent in touch with each other were they? I like the idea that our spooks were watching to see who made contact with them while their spooks were watching to spot the US watchers trade craft...All a bit "the Honourable schoolboy!"

The UK got two Russians out of it, so presumably we had an angle too. I wonder what that was? Our priority in Russian relations surely remains to prosecute somebody for the polonium murder and associated pollution.