A cunning plan...

So, the lovely Theresa May has finally published the proposals we all knew were coming. And to my mind, they're exactly as idiotic as we all expected.

The trouble of course is money. The reforms have been inspired in part by the government's demand that the Home Office make sweeping budget cuts, amounting to an expectation that some GBP2 billion will need to be saved from the police budget in the next year. Although cutting bureaucracy and collaboration have long been hailed as a way for police forces to save money, collaboration is expected to account for savings of just GBP5.7 million in 2010/11. Hence the government's cunning plans.

Now, the Bandit is not set fast against the current government. Cameron's 'diplomatic' initiatives and ability to piss off half his own side as well as foreign governments that we ought to have been willing to piss off years ago fills me with admiration - I too like to piss off half my own side. However, the proposals to reform the police smack me as ideological, and I hate ideological policy.

Take this lot. A pool of volunteer police reservists and 'community crime fighters' will be introduced, allowing ordinary people to take part in joint patrols with police officers. The National Policing Improvement Agency (NPIA) will be phased out. Police authorities will also be scrapped, and replaced by elected police commissioners with the power to hire chief constables. These elected commissioners will be overseen by new local Police and Crime Panels made up of local councillors and other independent members.

Now does this spark halcyon visions of democratic and accountable policing, with happy citizens patrolling hand in hand with genial coppers? Or a disastrous farrago with every Daily Mail reading nut-job demanding their police go after the neighbours that piss them off with their general scruffiness and youth? Meanwhile the 'oversight' will inevitably be a panel of overworked local councillors, some of whom - as anyone familiar with local politics will testify - are bordering on barking mad - and other 'independent' interested parties. Surely my heart can't be the only one sinking at that prospect? The 'independent' interested parties who end up on governing bodies are often bored party activists and local nutters - but with schools, they're balanced out by parents and teachers. The local panels will just be small-time politicos and their hangers on with too much time in their hands. Exactly who I want overseeing my security.

Stop Me If You Think That You’ve Heard This One Before (2)

Stop Me If You Think That You’ve Heard This One Before (2) � POLICE INSPECTOR BLOG

I am just so depressed. Keep the faith Inspector G...This is the origin of the G.O.T. blogpost previously linked. Wish I had a copy of the infamous T-shirt that went something like...first i was MBO'd...then i was PBO'd...then I was TGP'd...and so on....AARRGGHHHH!

GrumpyOldTwat: Deja Fucking Vu

GrumpyOldTwat: Deja Fucking Vu

Apologies for the language, but right wing loonie though he is...he is so right here!

Inside the Fog of War - Reports From the Ground in Afghanistan

Inside the Fog of War - Reports From the Ground in Afghanistan - NYTimes.com

The Wikileaks archive, which the New York Times, the Guardian and Der Spiegel have had access to for a while. Not sure how much it tells us that we didnt already know. But the data that the Taliban have access to heat-seeking missiles is new to me.

MoD looks at cutting 30,000 troops

FT.com / UK / Politics & policy - MoD looks at cutting 30,000 troops

Ah the bean counters are at it again. Merge the Royal Marines and the Paras? Madness!

Free the police to tackle the criminals on Britain's streets

Free the police to tackle the criminals on Britain's streets - Telegraph

A view purporting to be from inside the police...and maybe it is! The front line have long considered the upper leadership to be idiots. Like all post-NuLabour public services they also look aghast at the ever-increasing number of "support staff" who seem expert at making work for themselves rather than supporting the objectives of the sharp end. The noises that your blogger hears more recently, however, suggest total disenchantment with sergeant rank too.

Breaking the tick-box mentality...can it be done? Elected police commissioners are utterly irrelevant to the problem. But they are relevant to other problems, like public accountability and legitimacy. No public support, no crime reporting, no evidence, no witnesses, no-one to give evidence in court. Lots to do and no money to do it with.

Greek fire

Some big news elsewhere in Europe was the gunning down of an investigative journalist in Athens yesterday, 19 July. After initially assuming it was some kind of mafia hit - Sokratis Giolias was thought to be preparing to release a new series on corruption - police have now announced that the 16 cartridge cases came from the same guns used to shoot dead a police officer, Nektarios Savvas, who was guarding a witness in a terrorism case back in June 2009.

The group that claimed that murder was Revolutionary Sect (Sekta Epanastatos). This lot were always different from the other Greek domestic terrorist groups; they have no clear Marxist agenda and are demonstrably more lethal. The Greek police thought they'd got a lead on them with the death of Lambros Foundas in March of this year. Certainly, the group seemed to have gone quiet, and there was speculation that it might have dissolved itself after internal dissent over the shooting of Savvas. However, Giolias' murder suggests otherwise, and it's hard to find anything comforting to say about the capacity and future plans of the Revolutionary Sect.

National Security Inc. Part 2

National Security Inc. | washingtonpost.com

this is the second part of the washington post investigation, dealing with the privatization of parts of the security function

Eliza Manningham-Buller at the Iraq inquiry

Eliza Manningham-Buller at the Iraq inquiry - live | Politics | guardian.co.uk

This is the live stream from Manningham-Buller's testimony to the Chilcott Inquiry. Its from the Guardian, so the comments are a bit breathless, but no-one else seems to have offered the raw quotes.

A hidden world, growing beyond control

A hidden world, growing beyond control | washingtonpost.com

I dont think I should resist linking this. Washington Post report on US intelligence since sept 11, 2001

Chris Patten urges bolder EU approach over Middle East conflict

Chris Patten urges bolder EU approach over Middle East conflict | World news | The Guardian

Patten calls for Europeans to stop whingeing if they dont like what the US gets up to and create their own capacity to deliver foreign policy and armed force.

Labour turned a blind eye to Iraq casualties

Labour turned a blind eye to Iraq casualties | Chris Ames | Comment is free | guardian.co.uk

This should get the Bandit going: did a refusal to recognise casualties have a negative effect on policy-making? and is that continuing in Afghanistan?

Trying not to get involved in the Blair: war criminal "debate"...more like obsession...Can the UK afford humanitarian intervention on this sort of scale? and how humanitarian is it, if so many civilians end up dead or maimed? Is it better to be killed by a passing piece of Western technology than a tinpot dictator? Discuss...

Wanted by the CIA: The man who keeps no secrets

Wanted by the CIA: The man who keeps no secrets

Wikileaks: the website that publishes governments' secrets. They verify the documents, not the sources, which is one way of escaping court orders to reveal the latter. Personally, I think they do an important job, especially as the courts keep issuing superinjunctions that prevent freedom of speech. Christopher Booker writes of receipt of a minor one in today's Sunday Telegraph. The courts should protect the rights of the weak against the powerful, but unsurprisingly, tend to protect the rich and, increasingly, the bureaucrats. An interesting interview. wikileaks is not run by a saint, but Cobden and Paine were no saints themselves...and as for John Wilkes! But we owe many of our media freedoms to them and none to Rupert Murdoch...Think on!

Anna Raccoon says it's BATS!

British American Tobacco

Thanks, Anna...but has anyone told Ken Clarke?

Crime falls to lowest level since 1981

Crime falls to lowest level since 1981 - Crime, UK - The Independent

This rather kicks in the head the mystery interview I was supposed to have given to the Express and Echo. I did tell them that demography remains the biggest single variable affecting crime figures, but there lies the problem of academics and their relationship with the media. the media tend to leave the boring bits out! The Independent should note that the recession may have started, but that the cuts havent just yet. The figures for next year will actually demonstrate whether there is any increase in property crime consequent upon an increase in poverty. Patience, media folk, patience!

Does he write sense or nonsense?

Wonkette : Tom Friedman Is Embarrassed About Our Loser Russian Spies

Man, when Wonkette socks it to you, you stay socked...I wonder if the Bandit and I can ever achieve this level of vituperation?

Balkans due to explode on 22 July

Or is it? The International Court of Justice (ICJ)  has announced has announced that it will give its verdict on Kosovo's unilateral declaration of independence on 22 July. Received wisdom suggests that Belgrade is hoping Kosovo will be wrapped up in tissue paper and ribbon and gently handed back, while Pristina is fully expecting an imminent invitation to the UN, the Olympics, and the World Tiddlywinks Championship.

Actually, most observers think the ICJ ruling will be a pragmatic fudge - and, moreover, that both sides are expecting such an outcome. I'd go further and suggest both sides want the ICJ to do exactly that. Belgrade not only knows Kosovo isn't coming home, it wouldn't know what the hell to do with the 96 per cent of the population that's ethnic Albanian. It's only ever hankered over the country, not its inhabitants. Kosovo can't afford for the ICJ to grant it full independence, glorious as it sounds, because it still won't be recognised by all EU countries and it'll just undermine the legitimacy of the Court - as well as giving ammunition to all the loonies knocking about in Serbia. And while the current Serbian government is as level headed as you're ever likely to see in a country that preserves a half-bombed building as its defence ministry, this is still the Balkans. It's never entirely sane.

Afghanistan military strategy.

I am just playing with one of the tools that Google kindly supplies us with and i thought this piece by Gildas the Monk from the Anna Raccoon blog should be read.

Afghanistan military strategy.

Your blogger still thinks that there are good reasons for UK troops to be in Afghanistan, but feels that the voices of the relatives of the casualties increasingly have a point. Do we still have achievable objectives?

You can never control what you say to the media

GOVERNMENT spending cuts risk an increase in crime and jeopardise Devon & Cornwall Police's ability to respond, a city expert has warned.
Man oh man. Where did they get this photo and where did they get the interview from? The full horror can only be revealed if you see the article in the paper and there is your blogger pictured next to...gag...George Osborne! oh the horror!
The quotes from me are based on my explanation of Merton's theory of criminology as background briefing to a journalist from the Western Morning News. I need to put some of this right! Give me a few moments to recover and I will be back.

More follows...

A national service, delivered locally

Was dragged out of bed early Monday morning by BBC Radio Devon to discuss the business of elected police commisioners. Hung over after World Cup final, so wasnt at my most coherent. Nevertheless, I did find the Policy Exchange Report of November 2009 as well as the Reform report both of which are worth browsing. There is a significant difference between the two proposals: Policy exchange proposes elected commissioners at BCU (basic command unit) level, not at constabulary level and as such presents an interesting idea to create a better link between police and local community to make the delivery of policing as a service more accountable at that level. Unfortunately, the Reform proposal seems to have won favour as it looks like the Boris Johnson London model. This has actually failed as Boris found he didnt have time to do the job and be Mayor as well so it has been given to the deputy mayor instead.

More to follow...

Police outwitted, say police

Organised crime gangs are "outwitting police," said Sir Paul Stephenson at the annual John Harris Memorial Lecture last night. Apparently no more than 11 per cent of around 6,000 crime gangs are targeted by police each year - that's 11 per cent of an estimated 38,000 villains. Stephenson said: "[Some criminals] have learnt that if they become sufficiently organised and sophisticated - and by definition they often are - then our reach is no greater than our ambition, and our ambition has been less than it should have been."

This isn't new from top coppers - it's not the first time that it's been flagged up that the UK response to organised crime might be less coherent than one might like - in particular that there are few opportunities for police to co-ordinate their efforts nationally.

Sir Paul's cunning plan is to reject suggestions of centralising efforts even further. Instead, he says, we should take a leaf out of the big book of counter terrorism, and have a national co-ordinator overseeing a series of regional hubs. But elected officials in charge of police oversight will be a hindrance not a help, as it's not a sexy issue and nobody wins votes by scooping up organised crime gangs. "Serious organised crime affects everyone in this country. It's a surcharge on everything we buy," he says.

What do we say? Should we be fighting OC like we fight terrorism - the same commitment, the same sophistication? Will there be any political backing for such a move - either at the higher echelons of government or within the police itself? And would elected police overseers be a waste of public money?

Plenty in there to chew on. I'm willing to bet Smokey'll have an opinion or twelve...

Edited to add: Sir Paul adds: "It is important that I stress that I am talking about the gap that exists outwith the effective operational remit of the Serious and Organised Crime Agency (SOCA) - a gap located within policing and police forces." Should SOCA get bigger then?

The dreary steeples of Fermanagh and Tyrone

Another July 12th, another riot. This blog is about internal security as well as international security, so after Castro, more deja vu from the 60s and 70s. The dissident Republicans are back to orchestrating riots in order to recruit from unemployed Catholic youth and hoping to provoke the police into overreaction so as to get some legitimacy for violence and undermine the peace process.

The Orange Order want the right to march anywhere, any time, because "it's traditional". They have rejected the agreement reached by the Democratic Unionists and Sinn Fein on parade management, which is a serious difficulty for the peace process. It isnt clear that the Orange order itself supports the peace process. How can the intransigents be brought within the tent? This isnt just an issue for Northern Ireland. The Basque region of Spain has similar problems and Europol have warned that it is separatist terrorism, not jihadism which is on the increase in europe as a whole.

All this and the repeal of the hunting ban to come. Oh Joy! what is it.."Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it" ...I started with Churchill, so it's good to finish with Santayana

Fidel Castro speaks out!

Does he still have influence? Castro appeared on Cuban TV on 12th July to warn of nuclear war in the Middle East. Is this the resurgence of the mavericks? Ahmadinejad, Castro, Kim Jong-Il, Ghaddafi [keeping a low profile at the moment]...there must be others I havent thought of.

Castro's argument is familiar: the US will attack Iran in order to prevent the country obtaining nuclear weapons. Israel will probably drop the first bomb. But then he warns that Iran will resist and the conflict will spread to the point that Pakistan and India may become involved. He also points out that Israel, Pakistan and India have not signed the non-proliferation treaty.

Unfortunately, most of the Guardian article is backstory filler about where Castro has been and how ill he is. I'd like to see more of the argument he makes...Incoherent bombast or penetrating analysis? Time to do some surfing.

Carne Ross at the Chilcott Inquiry

Here is the Guardian live blog of testimony by Carne Ross at the Chilcott Inquiry. The links to his submission and his claims about documents to which he referred in drawing up his testimony will give Chilcott some problems when he has to write the conclusions.

I suppose that the important statement is his challenge to the credibility of the Inquiry. Great stuff for International Relations students trying to write essays in the future, in that he summarises the case for the prosecution. John Rentoul gives a counter case, of sorts of the Mandy Rice-Davies variety..."Well he would say that wouldnt he?"

Spanish omelette

This post title is inspired by just having eaten one that's been living in the fridge for an unknown number of days and wondering if it's going to kill me. Segueing to a poor analogy between said omelette and the current Spanish situation, involving exact number of particular ingredients that makes this a Spanish omelette and not a frittata or a mess of eggs and spuds.

What's special about Spain right now? Well, a 40 per cent unemployment rate for 16-24 year olds for a start. Think about that figure for a second. Contemplate what it would mean if you applied it to Ireland, for example, or Greece, or France or the US. Emigration? Riots? The fall of the government?

Yet in Spain, there is no unrest. No emigration, no big movement of young people getting on their bikes and heading off to find work. So what's Spain's secret? And more importantly, can they keep it up until economic growth returns?

Firstly, the overall unemployment rate is 20 per cent. While that's extraordinarily high, what it tells you is that it's the young that are getting shafted here. Spain has a two-tier labour market, and it's a generational gap. Most of the jobs that have been lost since the crisis began have been poorly paid, temporary contracts, with little training and - obviously - little job security. The other group suffering disproportionately are immigrants, for the same reasons. It is extremely difficult and expensive to fire employees on full time contracts. Recent labour reforms make it easier, but not as much as many employers might like.

Secondly, unemployment benefits are generous. They're around 65 per cent of the average wage and are paid out for two years, and after that there is another 180 days' worth of benefits if your income has dropped below a certain level.

Thirdly, Spain has a very strong familial tradition. These jobless kids aren't leaving home to look for work. They're staying with mum and dad and possibly grandma and grandpa and spending their days drinking coffees with their schoolfriends who are also out of work. Those 180 days of benefits I mentioned are measured according to household income - so living with the extended family may make financial sense too, especially if parents are also out of work.

What happens when the benefits start to run out, though? And public sector workers have to support more and more family members on shrinking salaries? Austerity measures and labour reforms haven't really begun to hit home yet. What happens when they do?

Elsewhere in Europe, this sort of thing leads to riots, domestic terrorism (yes it does, look at Greece), mass emigration, recruitment to organised crime, increased racism and xenophobia. Is Spain really immune? Answers on a straw donkey please.

Ten Little Russians

Well, eleven really, but one got away in Cyprus and then there were ten.
Ten little Russians, living rather fine.
One got above herself and then there were nine.
Nine little Russians, living in the States.
One was a Peruvian, so then there were eight.

I could continue, but I'll spare you all. What were the security implications of all this? Were these people pawns in a game betweeen the security services of the US and Russia, or was something more sinister going on? Where elements in the FBI trying to embarass Obama and prevent an apparent developing rapprochment with Medvedev [and behing him Putin?].

The Bandit hates conspiracy theories and probably will go for the " Anna Chapman had been told to make a run for it" explanation. But even then, they werent in touch with each other were they? I like the idea that our spooks were watching to see who made contact with them while their spooks were watching to spot the US watchers trade craft...All a bit "the Honourable schoolboy!"

The UK got two Russians out of it, so presumably we had an angle too. I wonder what that was? Our priority in Russian relations surely remains to prosecute somebody for the polonium murder and associated pollution.