Wednesday 14 July 2010

Balkans due to explode on 22 July


Or is it? The International Court of Justice (ICJ)  has announced has announced that it will give its verdict on Kosovo's unilateral declaration of independence on 22 July. Received wisdom suggests that Belgrade is hoping Kosovo will be wrapped up in tissue paper and ribbon and gently handed back, while Pristina is fully expecting an imminent invitation to the UN, the Olympics, and the World Tiddlywinks Championship.

Actually, most observers think the ICJ ruling will be a pragmatic fudge - and, moreover, that both sides are expecting such an outcome. I'd go further and suggest both sides want the ICJ to do exactly that. Belgrade not only knows Kosovo isn't coming home, it wouldn't know what the hell to do with the 96 per cent of the population that's ethnic Albanian. It's only ever hankered over the country, not its inhabitants. Kosovo can't afford for the ICJ to grant it full independence, glorious as it sounds, because it still won't be recognised by all EU countries and it'll just undermine the legitimacy of the Court - as well as giving ammunition to all the loonies knocking about in Serbia. And while the current Serbian government is as level headed as you're ever likely to see in a country that preserves a half-bombed building as its defence ministry, this is still the Balkans. It's never entirely sane.

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