Sunday 11 July 2010

Spanish omelette

This post title is inspired by just having eaten one that's been living in the fridge for an unknown number of days and wondering if it's going to kill me. Segueing to a poor analogy between said omelette and the current Spanish situation, involving exact number of particular ingredients that makes this a Spanish omelette and not a frittata or a mess of eggs and spuds.

What's special about Spain right now? Well, a 40 per cent unemployment rate for 16-24 year olds for a start. Think about that figure for a second. Contemplate what it would mean if you applied it to Ireland, for example, or Greece, or France or the US. Emigration? Riots? The fall of the government?

Yet in Spain, there is no unrest. No emigration, no big movement of young people getting on their bikes and heading off to find work. So what's Spain's secret? And more importantly, can they keep it up until economic growth returns?

Firstly, the overall unemployment rate is 20 per cent. While that's extraordinarily high, what it tells you is that it's the young that are getting shafted here. Spain has a two-tier labour market, and it's a generational gap. Most of the jobs that have been lost since the crisis began have been poorly paid, temporary contracts, with little training and - obviously - little job security. The other group suffering disproportionately are immigrants, for the same reasons. It is extremely difficult and expensive to fire employees on full time contracts. Recent labour reforms make it easier, but not as much as many employers might like.

Secondly, unemployment benefits are generous. They're around 65 per cent of the average wage and are paid out for two years, and after that there is another 180 days' worth of benefits if your income has dropped below a certain level.

Thirdly, Spain has a very strong familial tradition. These jobless kids aren't leaving home to look for work. They're staying with mum and dad and possibly grandma and grandpa and spending their days drinking coffees with their schoolfriends who are also out of work. Those 180 days of benefits I mentioned are measured according to household income - so living with the extended family may make financial sense too, especially if parents are also out of work.

What happens when the benefits start to run out, though? And public sector workers have to support more and more family members on shrinking salaries? Austerity measures and labour reforms haven't really begun to hit home yet. What happens when they do?

Elsewhere in Europe, this sort of thing leads to riots, domestic terrorism (yes it does, look at Greece), mass emigration, recruitment to organised crime, increased racism and xenophobia. Is Spain really immune? Answers on a straw donkey please.

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